MVO Forecast


Bullish Case: Recent positive price momentum (+4.3% from a week ago) and strong dividend yield could continue if oil prices stabilize or increase. The historical return surface indicates a likelihood of moderate long-term gains over extended holding periods.


Bearish Case: MVO's price has significantly declined in recent years (-28.7% YoY). Low trading volume and high implied volatility (190.4%) suggest significant market uncertainty and potential further downside.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued price decline due to market uncertainty and historical trends (70%).

2) Stabilization due to dividend yield and positive recent momentum (20%).

3) Significant recovery if oil prices surge (10%).


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July 12, 2024


MV Oil Forecast

MVO      MV Oil











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NOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOVA  Sunnova Energy International (0.75)


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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MVO



SAVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAVA  Cassava Sciences (-0.02)


LTPZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LTPZ  PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded (0.04)


SLAB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLAB  Silicon Laboratories (-0.07)


AOSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AOSL  Alpha & Omega Semiconductor (0.09)


DLTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DLTR  Dollar Tree (0.12)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MVO



GEO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GEO  Geo Group (-0.86)


HMY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HMY  Harmony Gold Mining (-0.87)


DFEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DFEN  Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (-0.88)


WDC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WDC  Western Digital (-0.88)


HWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HWM  Howmet Aerospace (-0.91)





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