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AI MWA Forecast

Price Forecast:

Bearish <-> Bullish

Bullish Case: With a recent uptrend, strong quarterly earnings, and high volumes in the Water Flow segment, MWA could witness a bullish trend, especially if macroeconomic conditions stabilize.

Bearish Case: The uncertainty indicated by elevated implied volatility, combined with decreasing revenue in the Water Management segment, suggests risks of a price decline in MWA amid market volatility.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price increase >10% (25% chance) driven by earnings improvement.

2. Price decrease <10% (40% chance) due to market volatility.

3. Stability (35% chance) as sentiment stabilizes.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread, buying MWA 09/20/2024 20.00C at $1.10 and selling 22.50C at $0.30, targeting a 20% price recovery with limited risk. This strategy leans long volatility amid high implied swings.

August 22, 2024

Mueller Water Products Series Forecast

MWA Mueller Water Products Series

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MWA

HDB HDFC (-0.0)

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BSY Bentley Systems (0.01)

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WEC WEC Energy (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MWA

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SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.94)

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Bullish / Bearish

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Trading Strategies

Long Volatility

Short Volatility

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