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MWA Forecast

Price Forecast:

Bearish <-> Bullish

Bullish Case: Positive fundamentals and high call option volume suggest MWA may rise due to improving operational efficiencies and a favorable market environment, possibly pushing prices above $25.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and significant put volume indicate market skepticism. Economic headwinds might drive MWA down, with potential declines below $20 if negative sentiment persists.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price rises >10% (25%): driven by earnings strength.

2. Price decreases >10% (40%): due to macroeconomic challenges.

3. Stability within 5% (35%): reflecting current market sentiment. Probabilities are based on recent volatility and historical performance trends.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread: buy MWA 12/20/2024 25.00C at $0.55 and sell 30.00C at $0.10 to capitalize on upside potential with limited risk. Market sentiment supports this strategy, targeting a 30% gain by December.

November 17, 2024

Mueller Water Products Series Forecast

MWA Mueller Water Products Series

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MWA

MLI Mueller Industries (0.98)

JXN Jackson Financial (0.98)

FTAI Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors (0.97)

ITA BTC iShares U.S. Aerospac (0.97)

TPB Turning Point Brands (0.96)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MWA

NET Cloudflare (0.0)

AVXL Anavex Life Sciences (0.01)

S Sprint (0.01)

TTWO Take-Two Interactive Software (-0.01)

XOP SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MWA

CABA Cabaletta Bio (-0.9)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.91)

RWM ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.91)

AZUL Azul (-0.92)

SDS ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.95)

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