Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: NC is undervalued with a P/B ratio of 0.6, showing potential for recovery. Historical patterns suggest mean reversion could initiate a positive trend.

Bearish Case: Continued macroeconomic challenges and political instability indicate persistent downward pressure. Recent flat price action and historical trends suggest low probability of rebound.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Stable Trading Range (50%): Price stabilizes around $28.

2. Moderate Decline (30%): Negative sentiment and macro headwinds lead to further drops.

3. Rebound (20%): Undervaluation triggers recovery.

Trading Oracle: Implement a Helium Short Volatility strategy. Sell $30 calls and $27 puts, 1-month expiration, to capture premium decay in stable conditions. High reward-to-risk with positive edge, high probability-of-profit. This approach benefits from expected price stability and implied volatility patterns.

December 29, 2024