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Bullish Case: If recovery initiatives from Hurricane Helene succeed and lead to infrastructural investments, NC may rebound sharply. Additionally, improving political dynamics could boost investor confidence and support a price recovery, aligning with historical mean reversion patterns.

Bearish Case: Continued uncertainty from Hurricane Helene's aftermath alongside potential political unrest could hinder investor confidence, resulting in further declines for NC's stock price. If voter turnout is suppressed, particularly in key demographics, this could exacerbate volatility and downward pressure.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Moderate Recovery (30%): Infrastructure investments post-Hurricane Helene bolster growth;

2. Range-Bound Trading (40%): Uncertainty in political landscape keeps prices stable;

3. Price Decline (30%): Negative sentiment from political instability and weather effects leads to further downturns.

Trading Oracle: Adopt a Helium Long Volatility strategy targeting the upcoming election period; buy $27 calls and $30 puts with a two-month expiration. This leverages potential price swings due to market volatility around election dynamics, enhancing reward-risk ratios for an upside as sentiments shift. Expect high theta decay from anticipated range-bound conditions post-election dates.

October 29, 2024