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NDAQ Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: NDAQ’s acquisition strategies and tech innovation position it well for growth. Improved financial metrics and resilience amid market shifts support this outlook.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and regulatory risks suggest potential downturns. Increased put option volume indicates bearish market sentiment, posing downside risks.

Potential Outcomes: Market resilience continues (45%): Tech strength boosts Nasdaq.
Economic downturn impacts (35%): Volatility and regulatory risks create headwinds.
IPO influx boosts index (20%): New listings drive growth.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying June $75 calls and selling $77.5 calls. This targets modest gains amidst low implied volatility and mean-reverting price action. With backwardation present, this strategy captures potential short-term upward moves, balancing risk effectively.

February 12, 2025

Nasdaq Forecast

NDAQ Nasdaq

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NDAQ

CBRE CBRE (0.96)

UNM Unum (0.95)

ADP Automatic Data Processing (0.94)

EVRG Evergy (0.94)

AXP American Express (0.93)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NDAQ

PATH UiPath (-0.01)

DNOW NOW (-0.01)

YELP Yelp (0.01)

VNDA Vanda Pharmaceuticals (-0.02)

PLTK Playtika (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NDAQ

GSBD Goldman Sachs BDC (-0.87)

COTY Coty (-0.88)

EL Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.88)

BIIB Biogen (-0.89)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)

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