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NYC Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: NYC's strategic property locations and historical mean reversion suggest potential for long-term appreciation. Economic recovery and strategic planning can bolster confidence.

Bearish Case: Persistent socio-political issues, rising crime rates, and remote work trends could depress property demand and rental yields, hampering recovery.

Potential Outcomes: 45% chance of socio-political stabilization lifting real estate demand.
35% chance crime rates undercut investor confidence, reducing property value.
20% chance of economic rebound increasing demand slightly.

Trading Oracle: Use short-term credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility) as NYC shows low volatility and mean-reverting behavior. Target a 1-3 month window. This approach prudently captures time decay and premium decay given neutral AI signals and social sentiments.

January 30, 2025

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NYC New York City REIT

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NYC

LLY Lilly(Eli) (0.7)

BLBD Blue Bird (0.68)

HPQ HP (0.66)

BBY Best Buy (0.63)

KO Coca-Cola (0.62)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NYC

GIII G-III Apparel (0.0)

DNN Denison Mines (0.0)

TSN Tyson Foods (-0.01)

V Visa (-0.01)

SOFI SoFi (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NYC

PATH UiPath (-0.66)

DAR Darling Ingredients (-0.66)

DV DoubleVerify (-0.67)

HTZ Hertz Global Holdings (-0.69)

LAC Lithium Americas (-0.72)

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