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OIS Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Positive developments in oil markets or patent-driven revenue boosts could drive OIS higher, supported by increased call option activity.



Bearish Case: Persistent weak demand in the oil sector and high implied volatilities suggest ongoing downside risk with limited recovery potential.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Patent revenue boost from OIS: 35%.

2. Continued decline due to weak demand: 50%.

3. Oil market recovery boosts OIS: 15%.



Trading Oracle: Current contango and high implied volatility favor long volatility strategies. Consider buying OIS 06/20/2025 $5 calls with low delta to capitalize on upside potential with limited risk exposure due to structural conv(base rate capitalizing on contango structure).


January 02, 2025


Oil States International Forecast

OIS        Oil States International

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with OIS


ODFL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ODFL  Old Dominion Freight Line (0.85)


CWH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWH  Camping World (0.81)


DV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DV  DoubleVerify (0.74)


PYCR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PYCR  Paycor HCM (0.73)


WY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WY  Weyerhaeuser (0.73)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to OIS


GRFS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GRFS  Grifols SA (-0.0)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (0.01)


WEAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WEAT  Teucrium Wheat (0.01)


INFY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INFY  Infosys (-0.01)


VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against OIS


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (-0.6)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.61)


DELL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DELL  Dell (-0.61)


UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVXY  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.62)


LLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LLY  Lilly(Eli) (-0.64)







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