Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: The recent rise in OMER's implied volatility signals heightened market interest. Approval of narsoplimab could drive share price significantly higher due to substantial revenue potential, positioning OMER for a sharp rebound from current levels.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility indicates significant market uncertainty; delays in narsoplimab approval could lead to steep declines. Historical trends suggest potential for a price reversion, particularly if negative trial outcomes arise, impacting investor confidence.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Narsoplimab approved (60% chance) leading OMER to $8 (+96%);

2) OMS906 data positive (70% chance) reinforcing value around $6 (+47%);

3) BLA delays (30% chance) dropping OMER to $2 (-51%).

Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a bullish debit spread with November $4C and selling November $5C, capturing upside with a delta of 0.65 while hedging risks. High implied volatility suggests potential for significant returns on positive developments, ensuring a favorable risk-reward ratio.

November 03, 2024