Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Increased infrastructure spending initiatives, coupled with historical trends showing positive returns in holding periods, indicate a bullish outlook for PAVE, especially as implied volatility remains relatively stable.

Bearish Case: Potential delays in infrastructure projects due to regulatory hurdles or economic factors could hinder PAVE's growth, particularly if implied volatility spikes as indicated by recent market conditions.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Public spending increase on infrastructure (30%)
2. Delays in infrastructure projects (25%)
3. Rising interest rates dampening growth (20%)
4. Unexpected regulatory changes (15%)
5. Increased commodity prices boosting infrastructure (10%)

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by purchasing the PAVE 46.00 Call (considering the high implied volatility) and selling a PAVE 49.00 Call to take advantage of potential upward price movements with limited risk. Target a higher underlying price for December expirations.

December 01, 2024