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PAYX Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Helium's implied volatility forecasts indicate stability in PAYX within a healthy growth sector. Recent buybacks and consistent dividends support an upward bias, enhancing investor confidence. A potential broader market recovery could further elevate PAYX’s share price.



Bearish Case: Insider selling and low trading volumes suggest underlying sentiment issues. The potential for economic contraction and sustained high valuations could lead to a price correction. Significant implied volatility indicates market caution ahead.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 55% chance of price increase due to strong HCM performance and recovery in demand;

2. 30% potential stagnation amidst high valuations;

3. 15% risk of significant decline due to economic downturns impacting payroll services.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish approach via a short volatility strategy. Sell 1 $140 put (delta: -0.39) and buy 2 $130 puts (delta: -0.12), aiming for a 74% probability of profit. This offers a high return/risk profile with solid downside protection as market sentiment stabilizes in a recovering economic environment.


November 20, 2024


Paychex Forecast

PAYX        Paychex

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CBRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CBRE  CBRE (0.73)


SPYV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYV  SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value (0.73)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PAYX


MDLZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MDLZ  Mondelez International (-0.0)


EXPD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXPD  Expeditors International Of Washington (0.0)


BTF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BTF  Valkyrie ETF Trust II - Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy (0.0)


AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (-0.0)


LVS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LVS  Las Vegas Sands (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PAYX


PGNY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PGNY  Progyny (-0.68)


DLTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DLTR  Dollar Tree (-0.68)


DG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DG  Dollar General (-0.69)


METC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   METC  Ramaco Resources (-0.7)


AMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMR  Alta Mesa Resources (-0.72)







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