PHM Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Despite recent declines, PHM's strong historical returns and low P/B ratio, coupled with positive market sentiment and future land acquisitions, provide a bullish outlook.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility and increased put option volumes signal potential downward pressure, especially with looming economic uncertainties and rising interest rates.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 50%: Steady growth from strong fundamentals and positive sentiment.
  • 30%: Price stagnation due to market uncertainties.
  • 20%: Downturn from economic pressures.




Trading Oracle:

Utilize a Bullish Short Volatility strategy due to solid historical performance and favorable volatility structures. A strategy of selling ATM $100 puts and buying OTM $90 puts offers a 78% chance of profit, leveraging stable volatility trends and positive returns.



March 28, 2025


PulteGroup Forecast

PHM        PulteGroup











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ITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ITB  BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (0.98)


BZH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BZH  Beazer Homes USA (0.92)


OMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OMC  Omnicom Group (0.89)


EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (0.87)


SMG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMG  Scotts Miracle-Gro (0.85)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PHM



GLNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLNG  Golar Lng (0.0)


ALL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALL  Allstate (0.0)


SPYG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYG  SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth (-0.01)


PDD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PDD  Pinduoduo (0.01)


MFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFC  Manulife Financial (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PHM



ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (-0.57)


HIMX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMX  Himax (-0.57)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.6)


DAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAN  Dana (-0.65)


BB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BB  BlackBerry (-0.66)









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