PHYS Forecast


Bullish Case: Continued geopolitical uncertainty and demand for safe-haven assets like gold may drive interest in PHYS higher. Historical data suggests significant returns at 5 years or more, fostering a bullish outlook.


Bearish Case: Potential economic stabilization and reduced inflation fears could diminish gold's appeal, resulting in decreased demand for PHYS. Recent performance shows a flat trend, indicating possible stagnant pricing ahead.


Potential Outcomes:

1) 20% chance of substantial growth (15%+ return in 2 years);

2) 35% chance of moderate growth (5-15% return);

3) 30% chance of stagnation (0-5% return);

4) 15% chance of decline (-5% or worse).


Trading Oracle: Adopt bullish debit spreads focusing on a 1-2 year outlook for PHYS, capitalizing on historical return probabilities of 60%+. Position for long volatility as demand for gold increases amidst market uncertainty.


July 24, 2024


Sprott Physical Gold Trust Units Forecast

PHYS      Sprott Physical Gold Trust Units











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PHYS



GLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLD  SPDR Gold Shares (1.0)


UGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UGL  ProShares Ultra Gold (0.99)


HMY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HMY  Harmony Gold Mining (0.97)


EGO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EGO  Eldorado Gold (0.96)


NGD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NGD  New Gold (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PHYS



CRVS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRVS  Corvus Pharmaceuticals (0.0)


ARI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARI  Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (-0.0)


KWEB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KWEB  KraneShares CSI China Internet (-0.0)


F Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   F  Ford Motor (-0.0)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PHYS



SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.88)


WTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WTI  W & T Offshore (-0.88)


CHPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHPT  ChargePoint (-0.88)


CMP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMP  Compass Minerals International (-0.89)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.89)





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