Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Increased geopolitical tensions and economic instability may heighten demand for gold, leading to significant price appreciation for PHYS over the long term, as demonstrated by historical return data favoring moderate gains.

Bearish Case: Stabilizing global economies and diminishing inflation fears could reduce gold's allure, causing stagnation or decline in PHYS prices, supported by recent flat performance trends.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 25% chance of substantial growth (15%+ return in 2 years);

2. 35% chance of moderate growth (5-15% return);

3. 25% chance of stagnation (0-5% return);

4. 15% chance of decline (-5% or worse).

Trading Oracle: Adopt bullish debit spreads targeting a 1-2 year horizon, capitalizing on anticipated upward movement due to geopolitical uncertainty. Use current prices to buy call options, maximizing risk-reward potential with favorable returns as prices rebound from flat performance.

November 30, 2024