Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Impinj's growth potential is bolstered by the recent legal victories and a strong demand for RFID technologies, suggesting significant upside from its current valuation amid increasing adoption rates in retail and logistics.

Bearish Case: Continued skepticism regarding profitability and high implied volatility might pressure Impinj's stock performance, with potential market corrections if negative earnings signals emerge, indicating elevated risks in the near term.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive earnings surprise leading to a 15% price increase (35% probability).
2. Continued negative sentiment results in a 10% decline (30% probability).
3. Stable price movement around current levels reflecting market uncertainty (35% probability).

Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread by buying the PI 190 C expiring on 12/20 and selling the 200 C. Current implied volatility suggests favorable risk/reward with potential upside amidst high bullish sentiment. Combine this with lower trading volume to capture value while limiting loss. Seek to capitalize on anticipated selling pressure at resistance levels.

November 21, 2024