PINK Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: The bullish outlook on PINK stems from increasing healthcare innovation sentiment. Recent advancements indicate potential growth in sector demand, supported by historically favorable returns during similar market conditions.




Bearish Case: The bearish perspective is driven by high implied volatility, suggesting market fear and uncertainty. Regulatory changes and economic pressures could lead to significant downturns if negative news surfaces.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Moderate Rally (30%): Driven by positive healthcare reforms or earnings.
  • Flat Trading (40%): Ongoing uncertainty may stabilize prices around $29.
  • Significant Decline (30%): Possible if adverse regulations affect market sentiment.




Trading Oracle: Consider executing a bull call debit spread targeting $30-$34 with a near-term expiration to capitalize on potential upward movement as the healthcare sentiment strengthens. The high implied volatility offers a favorable risk-reward scenario, with a focus on capturing gains from anticipated rallies.



December 20, 2024


Simplify Exchange Traded Funds - Simplify Health Care Forecast

PINK        Simplify Exchange Traded Funds - Simplify Health Care











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HRB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HRB  H&R Block (0.88)


MHK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MHK  Mohawk Industries (0.86)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (0.86)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (0.85)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PINK



BHVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHVN  Biohaven Pharmaceutical (0.0)


ACN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACN  Accenture (-0.0)


IJH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IJH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap (-0.0)


QRVO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QRVO  Qorvo (-0.01)


ST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ST  Sensata (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PINK



HTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HTZ  Hertz Global Holdings (-0.79)


LULU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LULU  Lululemon Athletica inc. (-0.8)


FIVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FIVE  Five Below (-0.8)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.8)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)









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