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PMO Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Increased municipal investment and policy shifts exacerbate short-term recovery potential despite long-term volatility.

Bearish Case: Persistent scandals and negative historical returns enhance downward price trends, driven by geopolitical instability.

Potential Outcomes: Flat action continues (55%).
Minor gains if policy shifts (30%).
Significant declines with geopolitical instability (15%).

Trading Oracle: Consider a bear put spread with a 3-month horizon due to ongoing scandal-related risks. Buy $10.50 puts, sell $10 puts. High edge via mean-reverting pattern and negative sentiment. This captures downside potential while protecting capital in volatile conditions. High probability of depreciating margins supports trade efficacy.

January 05, 2025

Putnam Municipal Opportunities Forecast

PMO Putnam Municipal Opportunities

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Assets that tend to move strongly against PMO

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ETR Entergy (-0.73)

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