PRG Forecast


Bullish Case: The rising PRG implied volatility indicates increased market interest, suggesting potential upside in PRG's price due to greater demand for options. Historical data shows significant likelihood for positive returns over 1 and 2-year horizons.


Bearish Case: Current high put volume signals market uncertainty, and stability in implied volatility suggests limited immediate price movement. The history of mean reversion, coupled with current volatility levels, raises concerns about potential price declines.


Potential Outcomes:

1) 40%: Moderate growth due to increased market demand;

2) 25%: High volatility leads to price correction;

3) 20%: Federal support boosts sales in upcoming quarters;

4) 15%: Competition stifles growth, committing to stagnation.


Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread strategy by buying August 40 calls and selling October 45 calls, leveraging high near-term volatility and mean reversion potential. This approach capitalizes on upcoming catalysts while balancing risk through defined strikes.


July 25, 2024


PROG Forecast

PRG      PROG











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PRG



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.59)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.57)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.19)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.32)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PRG



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.19)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.32)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.57)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.59)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PRG



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.59)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.57)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.19)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.32)





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