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RAYE Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: $RAYE's quantamental strategy promises gains as emerging markets become strategically vital, supported by moderate historical returns and rising investor interest.



Bearish Case: High variability and emerging market risks make $RAYE susceptible to downturns, and historical data shows frequent negative returns, posing volatility risks.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Continued Stability: 30%
  2. Short-term Drop: 35%
  3. Moderate Growth: 25%
  4. Sector-Wide Downturn: 10%



Trading Oracle: Deploy a long-duration debit spread strategy (Helium Long Volatility) over 2 years in $RAYE. Hedge with SPY options to mitigate broader market risks, leveraging low volatility. Optimize for 1.5:1 reward:risk with protective puts for high probability of profit.


February 15, 2025


Advisors Inner Circle Fund III - Rayliant Quantamental Emerging Market Equity Forecast

RAYE        Advisors Inner Circle Fund III - Rayliant Quantamental Emerging Market Equity

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with RAYE


OLED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLED  Universal Display (0.91)


PPH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PPH  VanEck Pharmaceutical (0.8)


IFF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IFF  International Flavors & Fragrances (0.75)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (0.75)


GEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GEL  Genesis Energy (0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RAYE


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (0.0)


FLEX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLEX  Flex (-0.0)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.0)


EPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPR  EPR Properties (0.0)


ETSY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETSY  Etsy (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RAYE


CRNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRNC  Cerence (-0.65)


BB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BB  BlackBerry (-0.66)


FWRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FWRG  First Watch Restaurant (-0.66)


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (-0.68)


PLBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PLBY  PLBY (-0.74)







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