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REPL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Positive clinical trial outcomes or accelerated FDA approval could significantly boost investor sentiment and stock price, possibly leading REPL to surpass $15 in upcoming months.



Bearish Case: Negative feedback in upcoming trial results or delays in approval processes may lead to sharp declines, bringing REPL below $10 due to high market skepticism reflected in implied volatility trends.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Accelerated FDA approval (30%),

2. Confirmation trial delays (20%),

3. Unfavorable feedback from the next meeting (15%),

4. High market volatility due to external events (35%).



Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish debit spread: Buy REPL 12/20/2024 12.50 C and sell 15.00 C to capitalize on the anticipated price increase from positive outcomes. With current high implied volatility, risk is mitigated through spread formation while aiming for substantial returns in a rising market scenario.


November 15, 2024


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REPL        Replimune

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Assets with little price relationship to REPL


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INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (0.03)


ONTO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ONTO  Onto Innovation (0.03)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against REPL


LFMD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LFMD  LifeMD (-0.72)


DG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DG  Dollar General (-0.76)


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