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RGLD Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: RGLD’s recent stability in gold prices and strategic acquisitions enhance its growth prospects. The mixed but robust sentiment, alongside consistent dividend payments, supports a long-term bullish outlook.



Bearish Case: Potential operational challenges, coupled with geopolitical risks and historically high P/E ratios, suggest downside risks. Persistent analyst skepticism and fluctuating commodity prices add to bearish sentiment.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Revenue boost from successful operations: 60%.
  2. Production issues at key mines negatively impact stock: 30%.
  3. Neutral price action due to market stability: 10%.



Trading Oracle: Utilize a Bearish Short Volatility strategy to capitalize on stable market conditions and low implied volatility. This leverages recent small price fluctuations and mixed analyst sentiment to potentially enhance return profiles while managing risk strategically.


April 10, 2025


Royal Gold Forecast

RGLD        Royal Gold

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with RGLD


AGI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGI  Alamos Gold (0.9)


OUNZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OUNZ  VanEck Merk Gold (0.9)


FNF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FNF  Fidelity National Financial (0.88)


OGE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGE  Oge Energy (0.86)


DUK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DUK  Duke Energy (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RGLD


SMG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMG  Scotts Miracle-Gro (0.01)


BZH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BZH  Beazer Homes USA (-0.01)


MBUU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MBUU  Malibu Boats (0.01)


ACAD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACAD  Acadia Pharmaceuticals (0.01)


CUBE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CUBE  CubeSmart (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RGLD


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.77)


TDW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDW  Tidewater Inc. - New (-0.77)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (-0.79)


MUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUR  Murphy Oil (-0.79)


NFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NFE  New Fortress Energy (-0.82)







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