Bullish Case: RIG's substantial backlog suggests revenue growth despite recent price declines. Market's implied volatility drop favors a potential upside move with strategic positions in short-term bullish plays offering alpha.

Bearish Case: Persistent debt and quarterly losses overshadow contract wins, with decreasing implied volatility signaling possible further price declines. Regulatory changes and macroeconomic pressures could exacerbate RIG's challenges.

Potential Outcomes: 35% chance of revenue uplift from backlog; 40% risk of continued losses impacting investor sentiment; 25% risk of regulatory changes causing price decline.

Trading Oracle: Deploy a bull call debit spread by buying $4.00 calls and selling $5.00 calls, targeting 6-month expirations. Capitalize on moderate market recovery and implied volatility reduction. Monitor for corrective rallies, balancing risk with controlled spread strategy.

February 16, 2025