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RIG Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Recent contract wins and market recovery potentially position RIG for upward movement, supported by increasing call trading volumes and a backlog of $9.4 billion, improving investor sentiment and cash flow.



Bearish Case: High debt levels, ongoing losses, and unfavorable market conditions may constrain RIG’s price recovery, while significant volatility in options indicates investor caution and potential downside risk.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Continued contract wins boost revenue (55%)
  2. High debt levels hinder recovery (35%)
  3. Upcoming earnings miss leads to price drop (50%)
  4. Regulatory challenges exacerbate financial troubles (40%)



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish long call spread by buying the $5.00 call and selling the $5.50 call, targeting January 2025. With current implied volatility favoring long positions, this caps potential losses while leveraging upside growth potential from recent contract wins.


December 13, 2024


Transocean Forecast

RIG        Transocean

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