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RKLB Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: RKLB benefits from successful launches, government contracts, and a strong market position. Increasing demand for small satellite launches supports growth, enhanced by positive sentiment and a bullish implied volatility skew.



Bearish Case: High volatility and insider selling highlight market uncertainty. Competitive pressures from larger players and potential project delays could impact short-term performance negatively, amplifying risk.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Stabilization around $20 (50%)
  • Decline due to competitive pressures (30%)
  • Surge from new contracts (20%)



Trading Oracle:
Choose Bullish Short Volatility due to favorable volatility surface and historical edge. Should leverage increased call volume and demand in space sector contracts. Flat volatility surfaces suggest exploiting theta decay. Strategy's profit odds sit at 66%, yielding a 14% potential return.


April 13, 2025


Rocket Lab USA Forecast

RKLB        Rocket Lab USA

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