Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Ross Stores is set to benefit from increased consumer demand as inflation drives shoppers toward discount retail. Strong expansion initiatives and favorable earnings forecasts could drive prices higher in 2024, supported by robust market sentiment.

Bearish Case: Potential economic headwinds, such as reduced consumer spending power and macroeconomic pressures from inflation, pose risks to Ross Stores' profitability, likely limiting stock price appreciation and possibly leading to declines through 2025.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued expansion and profit growth: 50%.

2. Investor sentiment declines due to sluggish consumer spending: 30%.

3. Positive earnings surprise boosts stock: 15%.

4. Macroeconomic pressures outweigh company strengths: 5%.

Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a bullish strategy by selling near-term $136 put options while buying $128 puts. This leverages Helium's model edge with a projected 73% probability of profit, targeting 10% returns while managing risk effectively. A short volatility approach aligns well given current market conditions.

November 17, 2024