Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Positive clinical data from RMC-6236 can boost RVMD significantly, as reflected in high implied volatility for upcoming options. A successful catalyst could lead to rapid price increases, exploiting current low price levels.

Bearish Case: Negative trial outcomes or regulatory setbacks could lead RVMD to underperform in the near future, especially given current elevated implied volatility levels indicating market anxiety about potential risks.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 70% chance of positive clinical trial results leading to a 40% price increase.
2. 20% chance of mixed results leading to price stability.
3. 10% chance of negative results causing a 30% price drop.

Trading Oracle: Utilize a bullish debit call spread by buying the RVMD 50.00 C and selling the 60.00 C for January 2025 expiry. This maximizes upside potential with a high reward-to-risk ratio as volatility is elevated. Alternatively, consider adjusting strikes based on trial outcome dates to capture any price movements.

December 12, 2024