SCC Forecast


Bullish Case: A significant downturn in the consumer services sector could drive SCC higher. Elevated implied volatility indicates potential sharp price movements.


Bearish Case: Continued mean reversion and macroeconomic recovery could keep SCC prices subdued. Historical returns surface shows a strong likelihood of negative returns over time.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Mean reversion continues (70%)

2. High-volatility event (20%)

3. Consumer services downturn (10%). Improbable positive outcomes are unlikely given historical trends.


Trading Oracle: Execute a bearish short-term debit put spread expiring August: Buy $14 put, sell $12 put. High short-term volatility combined with price stability around $13.32 offers favorable reward:risk. Expect downside continuity.


July 18, 2024


ProShares UltraShort Consumer Services Forecast

SCC      ProShares UltraShort Consumer Services











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Assets that tend to move strongly with SCC



DXD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DXD  ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (0.93)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (0.91)


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (0.91)


SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (0.9)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SCC



ARLP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARLP  Alliance Resource (-0.0)


ALGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALGN  Align Technology (0.0)


BGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BGS  B&G Foods (0.0)


NEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NEP  NextEra Energy (0.0)


ARKG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARKG  ARK Investment Management LLC - ARK Genomic Revolution (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SCC



UDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDOW  ProShares UltraPro Dow30 (-0.92)


WCN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WCN  Waste Connections (-0.92)


ICE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ICE  Intercontinental Exchange (-0.93)


ARKF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARKF  ARK Fintech Innovation (-0.93)


SPHB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPHB  Invesco Capital Management LLC - Invesco S&P 500 High Beta (-0.94)





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