Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Increasing investor confidence due to strong inflows into Schwab's wealth management and a promising bond ETF launch could drive stock prices higher, suggesting a potential bounce towards $82.

Bearish Case: Continued legal challenges and investor skepticism may depress stock performance, especially amid volatile market conditions, possibly dragging prices down near $75.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Legal resolutions boost confidence (40%);

2. Poor earnings lead to stock drop (30%);

3. Market stabilization encourages recovery (20%);

4. Major market corrections impact all stocks (10%).

Trading Oracle: Given current bullish sentiment and higher short-call volumes, consider a vertical debit spread by buying $80 calls and selling $82 calls with near-term expiration. This plays into expected upward movement and captures volatility advantages in the upcoming weeks, targeting a strong risk-reward profile with 68% probability of profit.

November 14, 2024