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SIL Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: SIL benefits from a forecasted increase in industrial silver demand, with positive social sentiment and a strong price increase over the past year. The backwardation in volatility suggests a stabilization favoring a rise.

Bearish Case: Historical mean reversion and flattening volatility term structure signal potential downside. Economic factors, such as interest rates, may suppress silver demand, increasing downside risks.

Potential Outcomes: Continued rally above $40 (45%): Strong bullish sentiment and industrial demand drive price gains.
Stabilization around $38 (35%): Balanced risk amid lower volatility projections.
Pullback to $34 (20%): Historical mean reversion trend reasserts.

March 12, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SIL

RGLD Royal Gold (0.86)

SAND Sandstorm Gold (0.84)

KGC Kinross Gold (0.77)

SATS EchoStar (0.75)

CQQQ Invesco China Technology (0.75)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SIL

JDST Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Be (-0.0)

LU Lufax Holding Ltd (-0.01)

RMBS Rambus (-0.01)

APG APi (-0.01)

AMC AMC Entertainment (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SIL

XRX Xerox (-0.58)

PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.58)

CAL Caleres (-0.61)

AAP Advance Auto Parts (-0.62)

FXP ProShares UltraShort FTSE China 50 (-0.75)

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