SKIN Forecast


Bullish Case: Given SKIN's depressed price (-84.2% in 2 years, -75.7% in a year), any positive catalysts, such as favorable product development news or earnings surprise, could drive a sharp price recovery.


Bearish Case: With SKIN in a prolonged downtrend and low historical returns, coupled with high implied volatility, persistent negative market sentiment may sustain or deepen price declines, driven by disappointing earnings or further market deterioration.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Earnings Beat (~30%): Short-term price jump.

2. Negative Earnings (~40%): Further decline.

3. Minor adjustments (~30%): Flat to small move.


Trading Oracle: Execute a Helium Short Volatility strategy via credit spreads, targeting November 2024 expirations due to high but declining IV. Sell SKIN Nov 15, 2024 $3.00 Calls and buy $4.00 Calls to benefit from limited upside. Benefit from high IV (~91%) and potential mean reversion. High probability of profit, balanced risk/reward.


July 18, 2024


Beauty Health Company (The) Forecast

SKIN      Beauty Health Company (The)











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SKIN



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.66)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.51)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.12)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.54)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SKIN



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.12)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.51)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.54)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.66)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SKIN



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.66)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.51)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.12)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.54)





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