SKYW Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: SkyWest's robust growth in air travel demand continues to drive strong earnings forecasts, combined with essential service contracts ensuring revenue stability. The current volatility surface shows opportunities for favorable options positioning amidst market optimism.


Bearish Case: Potential risks include market saturation, rising operational costs, and negative sentiment from recent incidents which could undermine consumer confidence and profitability. Elevated implied volatility suggests heightened market uncertainty.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 50% chance of continued growth driven by strong travel demand.

2. 30% chance of stagnation due to rising costs and market competition.

3. 20% risk of downturn associated with operational incidents impacting shares.


Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by buying the 90.00 call and selling the 95.00 call, capitalizing on SkyWest's strong demand outlook with a focus on options expiring within 45 days. The position leverages high implied volatility while managing risk effectively.


July 25, 2024


Skywest Forecast

SKYW      Skywest











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Assets that tend to move strongly with SKYW



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.9)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.42)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.75)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.76)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SKYW



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.42)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.75)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.76)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.9)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SKYW



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.9)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.42)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.75)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.76)





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