SMFG Forecast


Bullish Case: Sumitomo Mitsui's recent investments, strategic diversification, and current price resilience indicate potential for continued upward price movement.


Bearish Case: High volatility, stake reductions, and potential economic headwinds may signal downside risk, impacting future stock performance negatively.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Strategic investments propel stock higher (40%).

2. Economic factors cause decline (35%).

3. Minimal impact due to diversification, balanced portfolio (25%).


Trading Oracle: Given mean-reverting price action and low implied volatility, trade a moderately bullish credit spread, targeting January 2025 expirations. Focus on 12.50 C. Set tight stop-losses at 4% below entry and take-profit at 12% increments.


July 23, 2024


Sumitomo Mitsui Forecast

SMFG      Sumitomo Mitsui











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SMFG



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.8)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.52)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.75)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SMFG



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.52)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.75)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.8)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.8)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SMFG



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.8)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.52)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.75)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.8)





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