SMP Forecast


Bullish Case: Despite recent declines, SMP price and revenue growth fueled by expansion into new product lines and market segments bolster optimism as strategic initiatives gain traction.


Bearish Case: SMP's ongoing institutional sell-offs, disappointing earnings, and increasing SG&A expenses signal susceptibility to prolonged downward pressure on stock price.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful new product launches boost sales +20% (35%).

2. Continued institutional sell-off, price falls 15% (20%).

3. Market reaction to earnings miss drives price down 10% (30%).

4. Positive market overreaction provides buy opportunity (15%).


Trading Oracle: Initiate bearish debit spreads (Helium Long Volatility) targeting November 2024, given high implied volatility and strong likelihood of earnings disappointments. Buy 30.00 August Puts, sell 20.00 November Puts. This strategy capitalizes on high volatility, capturing downside potential with limited risk.


June 29, 2024


Standard Motor Products Forecast

SMP      Standard Motor Products











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SMP



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.47)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.51)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.64)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SMP



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.47)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.51)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.64)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.67)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SMP



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.47)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.51)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.64)





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