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SPYV Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: SPYV could rebound as interest in value stocks rises, supported by lower expense ratios and improving sentiment. Strong historical performance over longer holding periods adds to the potential upside.



Bearish Case: Economic uncertainty and high implied volatility (notably in lower strike options) suggest significant downside risks. Investor skepticism about value stocks could hinder recovery in the near term.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Stagnant market prevailing (60%) - ongoing investor caution limits movement.
  2. Moderate uptrend possible (25%) - deeper demand for value assets could emerge.
  3. Bearish reversal likely (15%) - worsening economic indicators lead to selling pressure.



Trading Oracle: Consider entering a bullish call debit spread by buying 2 $51.00 calls and selling 1 $52.00 call for a defined risk/reward structure. Current implied volatility supports this strategy's potential profitability as the market seeks to recover. Monitor the quick shifts in market sentiment for optimal entry points.


December 19, 2024


SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value Forecast

SPYV        SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPYV


IWD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IWD  iShares Russell 1000 Value (1.0)


DGRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DGRO  iShares Core Dividend Growth (0.99)


EWC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWC  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI Canada (0.97)


ITA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ITA  BTC iShares U.S. Aerospac (0.96)


KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (0.96)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPYV


JOBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JOBY  Joby Aviation (0.0)


CLOU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLOU  Global X Funds - Global X Cloud Computing (-0.0)


CALX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CALX  Calix (-0.02)


TYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TYD  Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (-0.02)


DBX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DBX  Dropbox (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPYV


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.85)


DLTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DLTR  Dollar Tree (-0.86)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.88)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.95)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.95)







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