TBT Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: With TBT currently above 7% for the month and inflation still a concern, rising interest rates could continue driving gains.




Bearish Case: TBT’s backwardation and heightened bearish sentiment, indicated by increased put volume, suggest vulnerability to downside movement.




Potential Outcomes: Stabilization near $36 (35%), rally above $39 on inflation spikes (25%), dip below $33 on dovish policy (40%).




Trading Oracle: Bearish Short Volatility: Selling calls, supported by backwardation, gives a better risk-reward amid potential volatility spikes.



April 17, 2025


PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea Forecast

TBT        PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TBT



BB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BB  BlackBerry (0.62)


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (0.61)


ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (0.6)


PCOR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PCOR  Procore (0.59)


HUBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUBS  HubSpot (0.59)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TBT



SLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLS  SELLAS Life Sciences (0.0)


ALLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALLY  Ally Financial (0.01)


LNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LNG  Cheniere Energy (-0.01)


M Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   M  Macy's (0.01)


MFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFC  Manulife Financial (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TBT



GRBK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GRBK  Green Brick (-0.77)


CL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CL  Colgate-Palmolive (-0.79)


CUBE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CUBE  CubeSmart (-0.82)


ZROZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZROZ  PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded (-0.87)


TYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TYD  Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (-0.92)









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