TBT Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: With TBT currently above 7% for the month and inflation still a concern, rising interest rates could continue driving gains.




Bearish Case: TBT’s backwardation and heightened bearish sentiment, indicated by increased put volume, suggest vulnerability to downside movement.




Potential Outcomes: Stabilization near $36 (35%), rally above $39 on inflation spikes (25%), dip below $33 on dovish policy (40%).




Trading Oracle: Bearish Short Volatility: Selling calls, supported by backwardation, gives a better risk-reward amid potential volatility spikes.



April 17, 2025


PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea Forecast

TBT        PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TBT



FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (0.71)


BB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BB  BlackBerry (0.62)


ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (0.6)


PCOR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PCOR  Procore (0.59)


BBWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBWI  Bath & Body Works (0.58)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TBT



POWL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   POWL  Powell Industries (-0.01)


IVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVV  BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (-0.01)


MFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFC  Manulife Financial (0.01)


ALLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALLY  Ally Financial (0.01)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TBT



FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (-0.68)


AMGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMGN  AMGEN (-0.72)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (-0.74)


CL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CL  Colgate-Palmolive (-0.79)


ZROZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZROZ  PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded (-0.87)









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