TCBI Forecast


Bullish Case: Strong capital ratios and insider buying support TCBI's potential recovery, aided by expected loan demand increases in the latter half of 2024. Positive top-line growth would offset recent earnings misses.


Bearish Case: Continued macroeconomic pressures and weak loan demand may hinder TCBI's growth. Recent earnings misses and rising expenses signal potential short-term declines in stock performance.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Increased loan demand boosting stock (30%);

2) Persistent economic challenges leading to stagnant growth (50%);

3) A major credit event triggering a sharp decline (20%).


Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish stance with a debit spread targeting TCBI call options at the 70 strike, taking advantage of heightened volatility. Anticipate a rally within the 1-2 month timeframe, balancing yield potential and risk effectively.


July 25, 2024


Texas Capital Bancshares Forecast

TCBI      Texas Capital Bancshares











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TCBI



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.26)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.22)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.04)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.05)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TCBI



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.04)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.05)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.22)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.26)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TCBI



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.26)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.22)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.04)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.05)





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