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TEX Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: The TEX implied volatility indicates manageable short-term fluctuations, while historical data shows favorable long-term returns, suggesting growth due to consistent demand from infrastructure projects. A strong earnings outlook further supports a potential bullish trend.



Bearish Case: Market uncertainty persists with high implied volatility, while recent trends in options trading show a preference for puts, indicating bearish sentiment. Economic factors and possible regulatory changes could dampen stock performance, leading to a potential downtrend.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued growth due to infrastructure demand (60%).

2. Short-term volatility leading to price stagnation (30%).

3. Economic downturn causing a major price dip (10%).



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish short volatility strategy. Sell 1 $55 strike call and buy 1 $60 strike call expiring in 30 days. This captures expected volatility drop and potential upside as market settles, ensuring high probability of profit with controlled risk.


November 05, 2024











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TEX


ATKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATKR  Atkore (0.76)


CRL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRL  Charles River Laboratories International (0.75)


HP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HP  Helmerich & Payne (0.73)


PLAB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PLAB  Photronics (0.71)


DOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOW  Dow (0.7)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TEX


EXAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXAS  Exact Sciences (-0.0)


MSFT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MSFT  Microsoft (-0.0)


AA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AA  Alcoa (-0.0)


DAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAL  Delta Air Lines (-0.0)


EXP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXP  Eagle Materials (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TEX


RKLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RKLB  Rocket Lab USA (-0.56)


LNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LNG  Cheniere Energy (-0.57)


OHI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OHI  Omega Healthcare Investors (-0.57)


APD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APD  Air Products & Chemicals (-0.58)


TAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAC  Transalta (-0.61)







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