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TEX Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: TEX is positioned for growth driven by continued infrastructure demand and recent strong earnings, exhibiting high historical returns over the next 1-2 years, with 50% likelihood of greater than 20% returns.



Bearish Case: Recent low options trading volume and high implied market volatility suggest potential downtrends, with a 30% likelihood of a minor decline of around 10% due to skepticism and mean-reverting behavior.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Continued Growth (50%): Support from strong earnings & infrastructure demand.
  • Market Fluctuations (25%): Potential volatility spikes from external factors.
  • Minor Decline (25%): Market skepticism leading to 10% downturn.



Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish long volatility strategy: Buy TEX $55.00 calls and sell $60.00 calls expiring in 30 days to capture anticipated volatility rise, enjoy substantial upside potential, and maintain a favorable reward-to-risk ratio. Target a 20% return (95% annualized) with 70% odds of profit.


December 05, 2024











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TEX


RGR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RGR  Sturm, Ruger & Co. (0.79)


HP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HP  Helmerich & Payne (0.78)


RIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIG  Transocean (0.77)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (0.76)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.75)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TEX


LRMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRMR  Larimar Therapeutics (0.0)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (0.01)


TWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWO  Two Harbors Investment (0.01)


IJH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IJH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap (-0.01)


SCS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCS  Steelcase (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TEX


GWRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GWRE  Guidewire Software (-0.64)


EXR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXR  Extra Space Storage (-0.64)


PSA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSA  Public Storage (-0.64)


ISRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ISRG  Intuitive Surgical (-0.65)


HEI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HEI  Heico (-0.65)







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