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TGT Forecast

Bullish Case: TGT has notable call volume with low implied volatility, suggesting potential upside as volatility stabilizes.

Bearish Case: Economic pressures and reduced consumer spending threaten TGT margins amidst sustained high volatility.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 50% chance of price stabilization due to economic resilience.

2. 30% risk of further decline from consumer spending breaks.

3. 20% chance of surprise earnings propelling prices upward.

Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish call debit spread: buy the $125 call, sell the $130 call expiring in 30 days. Leverage low implied volatility and high call volumes for a favorable reward:risk. Target moderate TGT price recovery.

February 25, 2025

Target Forecast

TGT Target

Price Forecast
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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TGT

CNI Canadian National Railway (0.83)

XP XP (0.83)

ARE Alexandria Real Estate (0.82)

LYB LyondellBasell Industries (0.81)

IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics (0.8)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TGT

ILMN Illumina (0.0)

RMBS Rambus (-0.0)

MHK Mohawk Industries (-0.0)

PHM PulteGroup (0.01)

IFF International Flavors & Fragrances (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TGT

CRS Carpenter Technology (-0.75)

OPFI OppFi (-0.76)

ATGE Adtalem Global Education (-0.76)

LRN Stride (-0.77)

HIMS Hims & Hers Health (-0.78)

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