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TGT Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Target's digital transformation and strategic initiatives are driving sales, bolstered by a favorable call option volume and reduced short-term implied volatility HeliumHelium.



Bearish Case: Supply chain disruptions and rising inflation continue to threaten Target’s margins, with market implied volatility in a normal contango suggesting uncertainty HeliumHelium.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Strong sales growth due to digital expansion: 40% chance.
  • Economic slowdown pressures margins: 30% chance.
  • Improved consumer sentiment supports stability: 30% chance.



Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish call debit spread: buy the $135 call and sell the $140 call, expiring in 30 days. This plays into low implied volatility and high call volumes. Expect near-term growth with better digital sales, leveraging positive short-term metrics. Aim for a quick profit-taking strategy with a favorable risk-reward ratio.


January 21, 2025


Target Forecast

TGT        Target

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ARE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARE  Alexandria Real Estate (0.75)


ABSI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABSI  Absci (0.73)


CNI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNI  Canadian National Railway (0.71)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TGT


TSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSN  Tyson Foods (-0.0)


IRBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IRBT  Irobot (0.01)


ACGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACGL  Arch (-0.01)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (0.01)


DNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNN  Denison Mines (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TGT


GME Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GME  Gamestop (-0.64)


WRBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WRBY  Warby Parker (-0.64)


OPFI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OPFI  OppFi (-0.66)


CWAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWAN  Clearwater Analytics Holdings (-0.66)


RKLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RKLB  Rocket Lab USA (-0.67)







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