Bullish Case: TH demonstrates potential for upside momentum due to increased demand for housing solutions and stabilization in market conditions. Strong historical price returns suggest a rebound is possible in the medium term, particularly with favorable economic indicators.

Bearish Case: Recent market volatility and speculative option trades indicate potential further declines, driven by weakening investor sentiment after the disbandment of the buyout committee. Current high implied volatility levels suggest that significant downside risk is priced in.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price recovery to $10 (30% chance);

2. Continued downtrend to $8 (40% chance);

3. Stabilization around $9 (20% chance);

4. Extremely high volatility due to market shocks (10% chance). Predictive models and recent trading volumes support these assessments.

Trading Oracle: Consider establishing a bullish debit spread by buying 10 $10.00 call options while selling 11 $11.00 calls. This exploits high implied volatility and aims for a price recovery, targeting a 1-2 month horizon. Adjust based on upcoming earnings for maximum profitability.

November 15, 2024