Bullish Case: Bullish sentiment arises from a recent technical rebound and strong consumer interest in TNDM products. High implied volatility suggests upcoming earnings could potentially drive prices higher, while increasing institutional buying supports the positive outlook.

Bearish Case: Conversely, ongoing structural challenges and significant declines from historical prices present bearish risks. High volatility indicates market skepticism that may increase on any upcoming earnings misses or unfavorable guidance, putting downward pressure on TNDM.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Price may recover to around $35 (+30% likelihood) due to positive earnings.

2. Continued consolidation around $29 with weak trading volume (+40% likelihood).

3. Price breakdown towards $25 (-30% likelihood) if market conditions worsen.

Trading Oracle: Engage in a short volatility strategy to capture premium decay. Sell $30 puts and buy $28 puts, capitalizing on potential minimal price movement while maintaining a high probability (>70%) of profit, targeting a quick exit before December expiration.

November 14, 2024