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TNL Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: TNL's strategic focus on luxury travel, combined with low implied volatility and signs of market recovery, suggests potential for upside, particularly if economic stability continues.

Bearish Case: Persisting macroeconomic uncertainties and high volatility in lower strike options suggest market skepticism, which could lead to downside if recovery catalysts underperform.

Potential Outcomes: 40% moderate uptrend as luxury travel recovers; 30% stagnation due to market saturation; 30% downturn on macro pressures.

Trading Oracle: Consider a short volatility position with TNL debit spreads. Buy $55 call, sell $60 call over the next 90-120 days. Leverage low implied volatility and potential post-recovery momentum for a high probability of profit, with manageable downside.

January 23, 2025

Travel+Leisure Forecast

TNL Travel+Leisure

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TNL

EMR Emerson Electric (0.86)

CG Carlyle (0.85)

OWL Blue Owl (0.84)

MIR Mirion Technologies Inc. (0.82)

COF Capital One Financial (0.82)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TNL

CLSK Cleanspark (-0.0)

WY Weyerhaeuser (-0.0)

ANET Arista Networks (-0.0)

ABCL AbCellera Biologics (-0.01)

FFIE Faraday Future Intelligent Electric (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TNL

UWMC UWM Holdings Corporation (-0.63)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.63)

VSAT Viasat (-0.64)

TMDX Transmedics (-0.67)

CNXC Concentrix (-0.71)

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