TPH Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: TPH's strategic expansions and strong call volume indicate optimism. The flat term structure supports stability, and economic growth in key markets enhances potential for recovery.




Bearish Case: Market uncertainty and high implied volatility indicate risk. Economic challenges, including a credit downgrade, present potential headwinds, suggesting vulnerability to broader market corrections.




Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of moderate growth due to market resilience and strategic expansion.

2. 35% probability of sideways trading amidst high volatility.

3. 25% chance of a downturn from economic headwinds.



June 10, 2025


Tri Pointe Homes Forecast

TPH        Tri Pointe Homes











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TPH



LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (0.97)


DHI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DHI  D.R. Horton (0.96)


AEO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AEO  American Eagle Outfitters (0.92)


OMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OMC  Omnicom Group (0.91)


DOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOW  Dow (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TPH



QLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QLD  ProShares Ultra QQQ (-0.01)


XLK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLK  Technology Select Sector SPDR (-0.01)


HBAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HBAN  Huntington Bancshares (-0.02)


LAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LAC  Lithium Americas (0.03)


CMI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMI  Cummins (0.04)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TPH



CRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRK  Comstock Resources (-0.8)


VRSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRSN  Verisign (-0.8)


GILD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GILD  Gilead Sciences (-0.81)


LRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRN  Stride (-0.84)


CNP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNP  Centerpoint Energy (-0.85)









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