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TPH Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: The ongoing economic growth in Austin may sustain demand for homes, leading TPH to rise as call options indicate bullish sentiment with 81% more volume in calls than puts.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility signals market uncertainty and potential for a sell-off, especially if economic data disappoints and insider selling continues to raise concerns.



Potential Outcomes:

1) 30% chance TPH rallies due to Austin's economy;

2) 40% chance of a sell-off driven by high IV;

3) 30% chance of sideways trading amid uncertainty.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish call spread: buy 1x TPH $40 call (d: 0.56) and sell 1x $45 call (d: 0.16) for positive edge on high call volume. This trade captures upward momentum while limiting risk.


October 27, 2024


Tri Pointe Homes Forecast

TPH        Tri Pointe Homes

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TPH


FLNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLNC  Fluence Energy (-0.0)


ENVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENVX  Enovix (0.0)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (-0.0)


BYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BYD  Boyd Gaming (0.0)


AVXL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AVXL  Anavex Life Sciences (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TPH


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.85)


LULU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LULU  Lululemon Athletica inc. (-0.85)


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (-0.86)


FIVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FIVE  Five Below (-0.87)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.87)







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