Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: TPR could see upward momentum if consumer sentiment improves, particularly due to successful rebranding of their luxury offerings post-Capri integration and expected positive Q4 earnings, supported by previous financial results.

Bearish Case: Negative market sentiment could persist following the blocked merger and integration challenges with Capri, compounded by potential downturns in consumer spending in the luxury sector, leading to downward pressure on TPR's stock performance.

Potential Outcomes:

• Improved consumer sentiment leads to stronger Q4 earnings (probability 50%).
• Ongoing integration issues with Capri impact sales negatively (probability 30%).
• Market volatility chokes discretionary spending, lowering TPR performance (probability 20%).

Trading Oracle: Consider entering a bullish debit spread by buying TPR $62.50 calls and selling $65.00 calls, capitalizing on expected price appreciation and higher implied volatility as market sentiment fluctuates. Alternatively, bearish credit spreads might be wiser for short-term declines amidst current volatility. Ensure consistent monitoring of market events around upcoming earnings reports to optimize timing.

November 27, 2024