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TROO Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Continuing geopolitical conflicts, especially in Ukraine, could spur increased demand for TROO, driving up revenues due to heightened defense needs.

Bearish Case: Potential peace talks and diplomatic efforts may lead to defense budget cuts, reducing demand for TROO's services amid historical mean reversion trends.

Potential Outcomes: 50%: Geopolitical conflicts persist, boosting defense spending.
30%: Peace negotiations lead to budget cuts.
20%: Market remains stable with mean reversion dynamics.

Trading Oracle: Initiate a short volatility strategy with credit spreads using TROO 02/21/2025 options due to high implied volatility amid geopolitical tensions. Bet on short-term stability with protective puts to cover downside risk. Focus on high reward:risk within a 1-2 month timeframe.

January 31, 2025

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