TRUP Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Trupanion's unique position in a growing pet insurance market fuels optimism, with increased call volume and bullish risk sentiment suggesting upward potential.




Bearish Case: High operational costs and potential legal distractions loom over Trupanion's profitability, compounded by a downward trend and high implied volatility in options markets.




Potential Outcomes: Expansion in pet insurance (65%), legal issues slow growth (25%), potential acquisition (10%).




Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish spread via buying TRUP 50 strike calls and selling 52.5 strike calls expiring in ~9 days. Leverage implied volatility and short-term price upticks shown by historical price action. High-segment upside with an attractive reward-to-risk ratio of 3:1 and positive Helium edge.



February 14, 2025


Trupanion Forecast

TRUP        Trupanion











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KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (0.91)


ALKT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALKT  Alkami Technology (0.91)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TRUP



RIOT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIOT  Riot Blockchain (0.0)


UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVXY  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (0.01)


CWH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWH  Camping World (-0.01)


OLED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLED  Universal Display (-0.01)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TRUP



PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.86)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.86)


EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.88)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.89)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.89)









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