TS Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: The historical return surface indicates a likelihood of positive returns over one-year holding periods, supported by increasing demand in the oil and gas sector.




Bearish Case: The current implied volatility surface shows elevated uncertainty, particularly in lower strike options, suggesting potential downside due to geopolitical risks and market volatility.




Potential Outcomes: Stability around current levels (40%), slight increase due to sector strength (35%), downside risk from external pressures (25%).




Trading Oracle: Deploy a bearish long volatility strategy using debit spreads. Buy TS $37.5 puts and sell $35 puts, expiring in 23 days. This leverages current volatility and potential downside. High reward-to-risk ratio with limited exposure.



January 30, 2025


Tenaris S.A. Forecast

TS        Tenaris S.A.











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TS



FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (0.86)


CRNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRNC  Cerence (0.86)


PBPB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PBPB  Potbelly (0.85)


YELP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YELP  Yelp (0.79)


PAYC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAYC  Paycom Software (0.77)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TS



OPCH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OPCH  Option Care Health Inc. - Registered Shares (-0.0)


TRUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRUP  Trupanion (-0.0)


XP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XP  XP (-0.0)


SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (-0.0)


APD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APD  Air Products & Chemicals (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TS



OLED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLED  Universal Display (-0.76)


IFF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IFF  International Flavors & Fragrances (-0.77)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.79)


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (-0.8)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (-0.87)









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