TS Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: The historical return surface indicates a likelihood of positive returns over one-year holding periods, supported by increasing demand in the oil and gas sector.




Bearish Case: The current implied volatility surface shows elevated uncertainty, particularly in lower strike options, suggesting potential downside due to geopolitical risks and market volatility.




Potential Outcomes: Stability around current levels (40%), slight increase due to sector strength (35%), downside risk from external pressures (25%).




Trading Oracle: Deploy a bearish long volatility strategy using debit spreads. Buy TS $37.5 puts and sell $35 puts, expiring in 23 days. This leverages current volatility and potential downside. High reward-to-risk ratio with limited exposure.



January 30, 2025


Tenaris S.A. Forecast

TS        Tenaris S.A.











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TS



TALK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TALK  Talkspace (0.92)


PAYC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAYC  Paycom Software (0.78)


LAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LAC  Lithium Americas (0.76)


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (0.73)


CRNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRNC  Cerence (0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TS



IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (0.0)


GME Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GME  Gamestop (-0.0)


RILY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RILY  B. Riley Financial (0.0)


BYND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BYND  Beyond Meat (0.0)


GLNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLNG  Golar Lng (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TS



KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.74)


UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (-0.75)


OLED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLED  Universal Display (-0.76)


MPWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPWR  Monolithic Power System (-0.8)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (-0.87)









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