Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Tesla's bullish trajectory is supported by strong post-election momentum, continued innovations like the Robotaxi, and robust demand in the EV market. Increasing institutional interest and high implied volatility suggest potential price spikes.

Bearish Case: Bearish sentiment arises from formidable competition in the EV sector, potential regulatory shifts under a new administration, and uncertainty around production capabilities for the Cybertruck, which could pressure stock performance.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful Robotaxi launch: 40% chance.

2. Weaker-than-expected Q4 earnings: 30% chance.

3. Increased competition impacts market share: 30% chance.

4. Regulatory challenges hinder growth: 25% chance.

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish debit spread around the $360-$370 strike range, leveraging high implied volatility to capitalize on potential price increases post-earnings. Maintain a medium-term outlook, aiming for a January 2025 expiration to harness premium pricing as trends solidify.

November 12, 2024