UMBF Forecast


Bullish Case: UMBF's stable dividend history, institutional support, and recent mergers signify strong long-term potential despite short-term uncertainties.


Bearish Case: High insider selling, mean-reverting price action, and dilution risks suggest limited upside potential compounded by market volatility.


Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of sideways trading due to mean-reverting nature, 30% modest increase from resilience, 20% decline from insider selling and mergers.


Trading Oracle: Deploy a bull call debit spread targeting strikes around $80-$90 expiring in December 2024. Six-month outlook leveraging moderate volatility and resilience potential. Hedge downside risk due to potential market fluctuations and insider selling.


June 28, 2024


UMB Financial Forecast

UMBF      UMB Financial











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UMBF



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.75)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.22)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.47)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.6)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UMBF



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.22)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.47)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.6)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.75)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UMBF



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.75)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.22)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.47)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.6)





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