UPST Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Upstart’s AI-driven expansion and strategic partnerships offer a compelling growth trajectory, enhanced by recent outperforming earnings and high call option volume.




Bearish Case: Macroeconomic headwinds, regulatory scrutiny, and elevated competition create significant obstacles, reflected in high implied volatility and market skepticism.




Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% - AI adoption and partnerships create upward momentum.

2. 40% - Economic pressures and volatility cause decline.

3. 20% - Mixed results lead to stagnation.




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May 17, 2025


Upstart Forecast

UPST        Upstart











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UPST



EXPE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXPE  Expedia (0.95)


NDAQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NDAQ  Nasdaq (0.95)


SOFI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOFI  SoFi (0.94)


PTON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTON  Peloton Interactive (0.94)


CMI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMI  Cummins (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UPST



BZH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BZH  Beazer Homes USA (0.0)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (0.01)


UUUU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUUU  Energy Fuels (0.01)


FDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FDX  Fedex (-0.01)


HAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HAS  Hasbro (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UPST



STM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STM  New York Shares (-0.71)


TDW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDW  Tidewater Inc. - New (-0.72)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (-0.73)


UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.77)


EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (-0.83)









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