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UPST Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: UPST's strong AI-driven innovation, recent partnerships, and elevated options call volume suggest potential for recovery and growth, especially as market volatility stabilizes.



Bearish Case: Persistent high implied volatility and macroeconomic challenges, including competitive pressures and regulatory risks, may hinder UPST's growth, maintaining downward pressure on the stock.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 40% - AI and partnerships drive UPST higher.
  • 35% - Macroeconomic and competitive pressures push prices lower.
  • 25% - Mixed signals lead to price stagnation.



Trading Oracle:
Strategize with Bullish Short Volatility approach. The elevated implied volatility and positive edge in current trade positions suggest selling ATM put options while buying further OOTM put options. This balances risk and benefits from potential volatility reduction and price recovery.


April 22, 2025


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UPST        Upstart

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CMI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMI  Cummins (0.94)


AXP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AXP  American Express (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

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DDD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDD  3D Systems (0.01)


SNY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNY  Sanofi (0.02)


TAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAL  TAL Education (0.02)


DAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAN  Dana (0.02)


HBM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HBM  Hudbay Minerals (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UPST


ADNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADNT  Adient (-0.76)


PAGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAGS  PagSeguro Digital (-0.82)


UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.82)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (-0.83)


EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (-0.83)







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