USCI Forecast


Bullish Case: USCI's strong 5-year historical return (+72.2%) and lower implied volatility favor potential bullish movement, especially as implied volatility is low in near-term options.


Bearish Case: USCI is flat and Helium forecast predicts -0.02%. Elevated implied volatility (84.5%) in OTM puts (strike 49) suggests downside risk, amid uncertain macro risks.


Potential Outcomes:

1. New H-1B rules (40% chance) could affect demand for USD and commodities.

2. Continued Fed hikes (30%) may strengthen USD and pressure commodity prices.

3. US-China tensions (20%) could disrupt supply chains, boosting commodities.


Trading Oracle: Initiate a bullish call debit spread (buy 62C, sell 64C) expiring in Aug 2024. This captures USCI's historical upward trend while capitalizing on currently low implied volatility at slightly OTM strikes. High reward:risk, delta positive.


June 30, 2024


United States Commodity Funds Forecast

USCI      United States Commodity Funds











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with USCI



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.83)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.55)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.55)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to USCI



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.55)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.55)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.83)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against USCI



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.83)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.55)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.55)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)





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