UST Forecast


Bullish Case: Economic slowdown and disinflation increase UST demand, driving prices higher. Upcoming Michigan infrastructure investment and favorable inflation data further support bullish sentiment.


Bearish Case: Ongoing legal issues and regulatory concerns erode trust in UST, leading to potential price drops. Historical price trends indicate higher likelihood of negative returns in short to mid-term.


Potential Outcomes: Economic slowdown (65%) positively impacts prices. Regulatory and legal challenges (70%) create downside risk. Inflation data (50%) influences Treasury yields and UST price.


Trading Oracle: Initiate a short volatility trade through credit spreads, using UST 07/19/2024 42.00/43.00 Put Credit Spread. Anticipate low volatility and mild bearish trends. Close within 60 days for optimal reward:risk ratio.


July 21, 2024


ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury Forecast

UST      ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UST



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.57)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.29)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.03)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.48)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UST



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.03)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.29)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.48)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.57)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UST



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.57)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.29)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.03)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.48)





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