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AI UST Forecast


Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish

Bullish Case: The economic outlook is stabilizing with anticipated rate cuts, potentially increasing demand for UST. Historical data suggests a positive correlation between easing monetary conditions and UST performance, positioning UST for potential gains.

Bearish Case: Regulatory uncertainties and persistent market volatility increase the risk of sharp UST price declines. High implied volatility and negative historical returns indicate that bearish sentiment may dominate, suggesting caution.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Economic slowdown leading to increased UST demand (65%);

2. Continued regulatory scrutiny causing trust erosion (70%);

3. Stable inflation prompting rate cuts, boosting UST (50%).

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August 16, 2024


ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury Forecast

UST      ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UST


TYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TYD  Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (1.0)


SPTL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPTL  Active Trust - SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury (0.97)


VGLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGLT  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (0.97)


EDV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDV  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (0.96)


IEI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEI  BTC iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond (0.89)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UST


WFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WFC  Wells Fargo (-0.0)


GOOS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GOOS  Canada Goose Holdings Inc (Subord Vot Shs) (-0.0)


GOOGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GOOGL  Alphabet (0.0)


DB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DB  Deutsche (-0.0)


CRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRS  Carpenter Technology (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UST


RRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRC  Range Resources (-0.72)


OBE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OBE  Obsidian Energy (-0.81)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.92)


TBF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBF  ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (-0.95)



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